Viral Technologies has been purposely neglecting our blog due to projects, however – we have also been doing our China homework.
We find this article, interesting…..
- Judson Smith, CEO
As you may have noticed – Viral Technologies has not blogged since April of this year. This is deliberate.
The last few months at Viral have been nothing but exciting.
Viral Technologies uses business intelligence to identify and inject unique e-commerce niches with content driven websites designed to funnel and drive affiliate sales. In the background, our IT department is developing powerful web based software that promises to be a game changer for us and ultimately the payments world. Stay tuned.
- Judson Smith, CEO
The Baltic Dry Index, (though not very familiar to investors), is an interesting market indicator that measures global costs of raw material shipments between countries. Since raw materials are the basis of all other goods, the Baltic dry index can expose economic trends in global demand of such materials, which can be seen as a leading indicator for economic progress. This index is reliable because it takes a long time to build new ships for transporting. Therefore, when the index goes up it typically suggests an increase in shipping costs and an increased demand for raw materials, which often times also suggests a positive economic recovery. During the 2008 recession, the Baltic Dry Index hit historic lows, and has been recovering since, like the rest of the economy.
Since the beginning of the calendar year, the Baltic Dry Index has shown signs of an upward trend. It is interesting to note that another clue for a recovering economy comes from Claymore/Delta Global Shipping – (traded as SEA) which has also experienced an upward trend, especially in the past 6 months.
As a case study, Viral Technologies analyzed trends of social media mentions of four main raw materials: coal, grain, iron ore and cement. The intent was to see if social media would specifically give any insight on the subject. All four categories showed a stable upward trend, with a peak in velocity during the last quarter of 2012.
Using unique sentiment algorithms, Viral Technologies analyzed sentiment on over 2 million social media mentions relating to the global shipment of goods and supplies from the beginning of 2012. The results indicate that more than 60% of social media posts analyzed were positive or somewhat positive.
Viral Technologies uses untraditional methodologies in the collection and analysis of social media insights to discover leading indicators for global markets and e-commerce ecosystems.
Viral Technologies measured the monthly amount of social media posts which mention the act of flying through each of the international airports listed below. Monthly passenger data was also collected for each of the below listed airports for the same time periods. Realizing that the number of times someone tweets or posts to their blog about flying through a specific airport would be miniscule compared to the actual number of passengers who fly through that airport at any given time, the ratio of social mentions to actual number of passengers was used in the comparative analysis.
Below are the ratios of social mentions to actual number of passengers for each airport during each month of the study. The standard deviation between all of the ratios for each individual airport was calculated to determine a margin of error. Notice that the margin of error was between 0.0093% and 0.9294% for each airport.
Airport passenger projections are just one fraction of what Viral Technologies has to offer its clients. Viral Technologies merges big data, social media insights and news distribution into algorithms to estimate leading economic indicators for capital markets, ecommerce merchants and government.
Airport Passenger Data Sources
There has been some recent debate over whether or not mine influenced water can be used in the fracking process instead of using fresh potable ground water. The term “Mine Influenced Water” (MIW) is used in reference to the water by-product of mining activities which sit in pools near the mines or rise up to the surface of the earth.
It seems as though this solution could solve two problems in one; it would save millions of gallons of fresh ground water for public use and would help clean up rivers suffering from mine-polluted water drainage. New technologies are being developed to treat the MIW which involves an intensive chemical filtering process, however it seems as though the hardest part is getting the contaminated water to the treatment system. Recently, a proposal (Utilization of Mine Influenced Water for Natural Gas Extraction Activities) was submitted to the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) which would allow for the use of MIW in fracking methods.
Viral Technologies recently measured the social media conversation in regards to fracking. As you can see below, the topic of fracking has been resurfacing over the past couple of months quite a bit.
Viral Technologies discovered that about 12% of the conversation mentioned the use of MIW in the fracking process. Taking this analysis a step further, Viral Technologies also measured the general sentiment of the posts concerning MIW in the fracking process.
The fact that there were more positive posts than negative ones, leads to believe that the proposed measure is being well-received. It will be interesting to see what kind of economic/financial impact a shift towards the use of MIW will have…and which companies will benefit. (Yes, we’ve figured that out)
Cyprus is now the fifth country among the 17 countries in the Eurozone who has received financial assistance in the past 3 years. What makes this bailout worse is the fact that all of the countries that make up the Eurozone may have to contribute a percentage to help with this bailout and future bailouts which seem inevitable for a few.
Viral Technologies recently analyzed the social media reaction to the Cyprus bailout. Below the trend line shows the steady build of social media activity starting on Saturday March 16th.
Below is a breakdown of all the social media mentions of the Cyprus bailout by country from the past 7 days. It is interesting to note that Spain was tied for second in volume of mentions. Many have feared that Spain may be next to have a financial crisis.
Viral Technologies uses untraditional methodologies in the collection and analysis of social media insights for global markets.
New rules were announced March 1st in China requiring homeowners to pay an additional 20% property tax if they own more than one property. In order to get around this new tax, many married couples who own more than one property are now getting divorced in order to avoid this extra tax. Trying to slow growth to avoid a real estate bubble; some Chinese cities have raised mortgage rates and required increased down payments for second homes. Additionally, the rates at which Chinese citizens are investing in real estate abroad have increased substantially in 2013. According to an article from the Huffington Post, the Chinese people “tend to park much of their wealth in real estate as they have few other alternative investment options, and home prices in the biggest cities have risen for 9 straight months.”
Chinese investors have been investing in real estate in various foreign economies such as the United States, Indonesia, Cyprus and the United Arab Emirates to name a few. However, recent data has shown that as many as one in six, (off-the-plan apartments) in Sydney, Australia are being sold to Chinese investors. James Sialepis, national director of sales for Meriton, said “15 per cent of all sales in projects such as VSQ North and EON in Zetland were going to mainland Chinese investors who face tough property investment restrictions in their own country.”
Viral Technologies conducted a social media study which analyzed all Chinese social media mentions from the past 60 days with mentions of foreign real estate. The social media content analyzed came out of China and was in the Chinese language. As you can see below, there has been a steady rise in social media activity surrounding this topic over the past 60 days.
Viral Technologies uses untraditional techniques to discover trends in various global markets.
 ” Chinese couples divorce to avoid property tax,” Agence France-Presse in Shanghai, 03/07/2013 (http://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1182995/chinese-couples-divorce-avoid-property-tax)
 Pete Sweeney, ” Chinese Couples Divorce To Dodge Newly Enforced Property Taxes,” Huffington Post, 03/06/2013 (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/03/06/china-couples-divorce-to-dodge-tax_n_2817011.html)
 Jane Hansen, ” Chinese investors buy up Sydney homes,” The Daily Telegraph, 03/18/2013 (http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/realestate/buying/chinese-investors-buy-up-sydney-homes/story-fndbpo91-1226599607346)
Investors around the world who are looking for new opportunities and emerging markets should be interested in hearing that Indonesia is growing financially and becoming a very attractive place for doing business. Home to 242 million people , Indonesia is the world’s fourth most populated country, and is showing growing financial stability; according to the Boston Consulting Group’s report which was released on March 6th of this year.
According to the report, “Indonesia is at the early stages of a period of strong economic growth, creating a wave of new middle class and affluent consumers that will grow in both size and purchasing power through 2020″ . The growth in size is estimated to be from 74 million to 141 million, making about 58% of the population middle class and above; a huge increase from now in 2013. On top of this data, according to a survey of Boston Consulting Group, 31% of the people in Indonesia feel financially secure; compared with China (14%), India (19%), Russia (15%) and Brazil (13%).
In addition to financial growth, Indonesia has enjoyed a relatively stable political climate in the recent years. The country being 86% Muslim, Indonesia has a political system that is secular and supports a constitutional democracy. A 2005 peace agreement and elections in 2006 led to a major cooling of the military tension that the country had experienced prior to the agreement.
Using unique data mining algorithms, Viral Technology examined the social media mentions related to investment in Indonesia over the past six months. The accompanying graph shows a stable upward sloping trend line, with recent, growing spikes. Another interesting graph shows Indonesia’s oil consumption. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, around 2004 Indonesia became an oil importer, showing yet another sign of the growing financial power of the country.
Viral Technologies tracks and measures unique leading indicators that foreshadow and forecast economic growth/decline on a National and Global level.